Amara’s Law

I can’t stop thinking about Roy Amara’s adage about forecasting future technology:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

This couldn’t be more true in bitcoin and blockchain. The hype cycle is real and most of the projects that are coming up online will not be here in 12-18 months.

Why? Because folks overestimate the effect (i.e. monetization potential, business opportunity, getting rich af…) and simply do not have the stamina or drive to work the long-game.

But, if you go long, especially on fundamental shifts of technology (like we are) then that’s even more exciting because we’re probably underestimating the effect, even though our eyes are as open and wide as possible and we’re starting to believe the impossible.

My hope is to minimize my underestimation while having the courage to not give up.

Some inspiration:

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