I originally wrote this for The Bitcoin Pub. And, I decided to spend a little bit of time reading it myself and walking through it, adding a little more commentary on it as well.
Hope you enjoy!
Guys. Gals. We’re deep within the Perez Technological Surge and it’s freakin’ awesome!
Specifically, we’re deep within zone #2, the “Frenzy” stage, where a ton of interest (and money) is flooding the market and industry as people are getting excited about all of the possibilities.
As per the Carlota Perez Technology Surge Cycle chart, which is a very useful framework to understand any new technological movement or advancement for that matter, this material phase within the larger Installation bucket (20-30 years) allows us to understand and perhaps more importantly, prepare, for what’s coming next.
Within the Installation Phase are the following 4 elements:
- Creative Destruction
- New Paradigm vs. Old Paradigm
- Financial Capital Leads
- Bubble Creation
If you’ve been part of the cryptocurrency or bitcoin community for any length of time… you know that all four of these are simultaneously happening right now, as we speak. This is part of the reason why I entirely ignore any FUD or FOMO talk around “bubble” or “bursting” or anything like that.
It’s all part of the plan.
The Frenzy Part of the cycle is important though! As I mentioned, this is where a lot of the new developments occur and the only way those development will survive (and thrive) is because of the new capital that is flowing into the industry and projects and companies that are trying to take advantage of the frenzy (or “hype” cycle, if you will).
Of course, most (and please don’t miss this… most) of these projects created within this Installation Phase are going to wildly fail so please don’t be surprised if a piece of tech you see today that seems to have unlimited bandwidth, unlimited opportunity, the best and the brightest minds backing it and working on it… utterly disappears tomorrow.
The Frenzy Funds our future… and the pruning will inevitably happen.
In fact, nearly $4,000,000,000 (that’s 4-billion… with a capital-B) was raised for cryptocurrency, blockchain, and bitcoin-centric companies this year (2017). That’s a lot of money. And that’s going to the fundamental infrastructure of a truly decentralized future.
And, I hate to beat a dead horse… but a lot of that infrastructure will be on top of the bones of forgotten and failed projects… and a lot of capital and monetary investments… which may include your own personal coffers.
This isn’t a waste, of course… but just as expected. Go back to the birth of the internet 1.0 and the frenzy that was created then. Most of those projects failed but on top of that mounting graveyard were born the future of our time, like Google, Facebook, Twitter, and more.
And we need these things to happen, and quick. The scaling challenges that we all experience will need to be solved and it’s through this frenzy stage that those projects, hopefully, will be born. Or, perhaps right after.
One final Note: The Installation Phase is 20-30 years long. Don’t miss this! This means that we are in for a seriously bumpy ride for quite some time. I’m not entirely sure how far along we are from the “Turning Point” but we’ve probably got a ways to go.
This means that those who stick in for the long-haul (or HODL) will be rewarded for their patience. But, most will not survive and most will drop out way before they see their amazing rewards. Be one that lasts friends… be one that lasts.
That is all. Good luck.