Your Intuition is Wrong…

… unless, these three conditions are met:

The first is that there has to be some regularity in the world that someone can pick up and learn.

“So, chess players certainly have it. Married people certainly have it,” Kahneman explained.

However, he added, people who pick stocks in the stock market do not have it.

“Because, the stock market is not sufficiently regular to support developing that kind of expert intuition,” he explained.

The second condition for accurate intuition is “a lot of practice,” according to Kahneman.

And the third condition is immediate feedback. Kahneman said that “you have to know almost immediately whether you got it right or got it wrong.”

When those three kinds of conditions are satisfied, people develop expert intuition.

“But unless those three conditions are satisfied, the mere fact that you have an idea and nothing else comes to mind and you feel a great deal of confidence — absolutely does not guarantee accuracy,” he added.

via Daniel Kahneman

I’m still working through Kahneman’s book right now (I like to read multiple books at the same time) but I’m thinking I should go back and internally prioritize this one a bit more…

… I really enjoy thinking through behavioral mechanics and the interplay of the mind and body and the thoughts that we have that influence our decisions. These things can be very useful in all parts of my personal and professional life.

I told my 12-year old last weekend, as we drove back from a really tough, early-morning weekend soccer game (we lost), that if I were to do college over again I would have focused on psychology and some of the more specific fields of study like organizational psychology.

Yes, these are the types of conversations that we have on our long-ish drives.

In any case, I will not be able to not think critically about my own intuition this week; I’m sure I trust it more than I should and I’m interested to know how often I am wrong.